Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
